Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 14.765364 16.743257 18.995601 21.773773 25.141057 29.133070 34.289013
2025-06-08 11.876091 14.252820 17.187070 21.149977 26.482086 33.593956 44.138778
2025-06-15 10.414856 12.974422 16.310485 21.111021 28.083187 38.267394 55.185130
2025-06-22 9.061326 11.577697 14.982115 20.105825 27.975152 40.293293 62.709145
2025-06-29 7.990670 10.408099 13.773686 19.020288 27.448635 41.421034 68.935893
2025-07-06 7.230630 9.578330 12.930638 18.324470 27.354378 43.157423 76.786044
2025-07-13 7.315498 9.949548 13.864094 20.492105 32.373124 55.193007 111.083285
2025-07-20 7.044425 9.759627 13.910759 21.204170 34.962555 63.370551 141.547029
2025-07-27 6.544310 9.173953 13.267933 20.636134 35.014983 66.210662 159.564619
2025-08-03 6.341628 9.029863 13.318039 21.292188 37.601895 75.574965 204.456165
2025-08-10 5.988857 8.618088 12.882069 20.992054 38.136778 80.148606 237.160038
2025-08-17 5.674581 8.245043 12.477531 20.698020 38.626632 84.786177 275.006525
2025-08-24 5.400500 7.932709 12.174661 20.613863 39.700716 91.838187 334.928906
2025-08-31 5.074701 7.513792 11.651869 20.032780 39.515154 95.228807 382.612417
2025-09-07 4.859359 7.265401 11.411461 19.996729 40.656077 103.339409 474.671890
2025-09-14 4.539638 6.819374 10.777536 19.062968 39.344716 102.752268 507.104178
2025-09-21 4.235265 6.384219 10.136141 18.053171 37.682208 100.454261 524.466908
2025-09-28 4.001546 6.060021 9.680998 17.405105 36.891819 101.185827 572.659149
2025-10-05 4.116438 6.350057 10.398390 19.421941 43.884606 136.206305 1142.404924
2025-10-12 4.057575 6.326317 10.510574 20.083189 47.197660 158.764813 1802.475039
2025-10-19 3.873464 6.065706 10.137973 19.555741 46.729597 162.820831 2141.548143
2025-10-26 3.819657 6.040062 10.231479 20.164883 50.069089 189.694503 3705.890560
2025-11-02 3.680555 5.849346 9.977439 19.886275 50.394068 199.931687 5023.932982